Jumping into 2022, mobile app advertisers are better prepared for the evolving advertising ecosystem than they were last year. We can now quantify the impact of IDFA loss and understand the A/B testing implications of automated buying and privacy restrictions. Based on public comments, IDFA impact is generally being accepted as the new normal, with lower-level setting and margin compression due to the complexity of targeting and measurement on iOS. Mobile app businesses are acclimating and many are growing within these new constraints. For the global mobile game market, Newzoo predicts a compound annual growth rate of +11.2 percent by 2021. Similarly, GlobalData estimates the mobile gaming industry will record a CAGR of 11% by 2030.
Based on conversations with our clients and leading industry experts, +11% CAGR is a moderate estimate. However, many speculate that emerging trends may be under-indexed and could increase market growth upwards of 20%. We are excited to see how mobile-first companies are improving and innovating in real-time to address advertising ecosystem challenges.
From first-party data to NFTs, here are the successful strategies and user acquisition trends we’ll be watching in 2022.
Companies that build their own identity systems tied into behavioral dynamics and layered with contextual advertising do not need to rely on third-party visibility. For valuable first-party data, mobile app companies with the resources are wise to build ad platforms alongside or in tandem with their publishing platforms. Setting up native experiences allows for control of tracking, measurement, and analysis. Similarly, social platform-based experiences, such as games on Snap and TikTok, provide native attribution tracking and analysis.
Companies will need to enhance their iOS acquisition portfolios beyond Facebook and Google, and expand volume from SDK Networks (Applovin, Unity, IronSource, Vungle) and DSPs. A true multi-channel approach should also include YouTube, TikTok, and Snap. As portfolios grow, complexity grows, requiring robust media mix modeling and reliable attribution analysis.
As reliance on upper-funnel campaigns increases, ad creative optimized to appeal to discreet personas is the most efficient lever for sustained profitable user acquisition. Without deterministic tracking, motivation-based, persona-led ad creative is critical to attracting high-quality top-of-funnel installs.
To help with SKAN restrictions after install, the first 24-48 hours of app usage should identify consumers that indicate a propensity to monetize. We recommend streamlining and instrumenting your onboarding flows and events to capture these early monetization signals. With persona-led creative paired with onboarding events, the algorithms will learn what changes to make to deliver better audiences.
Just as consumers have come to expect omnichannel shopping experiences, gamers will increasingly expect console-to-mobile flexibility and consistency. With global 5G adoption estimated to hit one billion subscriptions in 2022, mobile games can leverage higher download speeds for higher fidelity gameplay. Companies building their own identity systems can provide consistent experiences and analytics across platforms. Simultaneously taking advantage of alternative purchasing mechanisms outside of the App Store. Apple’s official App Store Review Guidelines states, “apps that operate across multiple platforms may allow users to access content, subscriptions, or features they have acquired in your app on other platforms or your web site, including consumable items in multi-platform games, provided those items are also available as in-app purchases within the app.”
As the industry-shaking lawsuit of Epic Games v. Apple continues to play out in the appellate courts, developers should plan for alternative purchasing mechanisms outside of the App Store. If Apple is required to allow metadata buttons and external links for payments, developers can increase revenue by 30 percent as they eliminate App Store commissions. By offering direct-to-consumer billing options, app developers can also decrease IAP costs for users.
Through non-fungible tokens (NFTs), mobile gaming companies will have a massive market opportunity. From digital plots of land to rare gear, NFTs built into core gameplay loops have the potential to drive significant in-game purchases. When tied to player motivations, NFTs can appeal to completionists, collectors, customizers, status-seekers, and strategists.
User-generated video continues to drive meaningful engagement on social platforms. As platforms increase interactive video capabilities, that engagement will only increase. Building out creator ecosystems that support UGC has the added value of providing first-party data through native experiences.
Adjacent to and often overlapping with creator ecosystems is the Metaverse. It is a persistent, virtual, connected, social space that is emergent and speculative. Second Life was prototypical and popular contemporaries include Roblox, Minecraft, and Fortnite. Immersive environments and the communities that grow within them also present significant opportunities for monetization, user-generated content, contextual advertising, and first-party data.
Our industry expertise comes from managing over $3.5 billion in creative and paid social spend for the world’s largest mobile apps and performance advertisers, including Glu, Roblox, Wooga, Zynga, and Skillz. Our proprietary full-stack marketing platform AdRules provides real-time business intelligence and creative research from 3.5 million video ads across social channels.
As the mobile advertising ecosystem has evolved, we have focused on being a reliable source of mobile app industry insights and trends. Our strategic analyses of IDFA loss and media buying automation, along with tactical guidance for user acquisition and creative teams, has helped advertisers remain profitable during an unprecedented era of change. Our industry expertise has earned coverage from CNBC, Forbes, SeekingAlpha, Business Insider, VentureBeat, TechCrunch, Mobile Marketing Magazine, and many more.